To no one's surprise, Rockstar Games' decision to delay Grand Theft Auto 6 by six months is affecting everything from competitor release schedules to publisher strategies for 2026, just like what happened earlier this year with Death Stranding 2, Ghost of Yotei, and The Outer Worlds 2, among others. But one analyst believes that GTA 6's delay impact extends beyond just competing software: could it actually influence when Sony and Microsoft launch their next-generation consoles?

The question comes from Piers Harding-Rolls, research director of games at Ampere Analysis, in an interview with GamesIndustry.biz.

While Harding-Rolls hasn't definitively predicted a delay to next-generation hardware, his thought experiment suggests that Sony and Microsoft would have wanted a much earlier release than late 2026, so they could generate momentum earlier in the cycle, given how important games are for driving hardware sales.

True enough, PlayStation's ability to secure the exclusivity of Grand Theft Auto III is widely credited with making the PlayStation 2 the best-selling video game console of all time.

So when a game carries as much influence as GTA 6 does, its release timing becomes an important consideration for the platform holders whose business models depend on maintaining healthy install bases.

As Harding-Rolls noted:

The delay will have a significant impact on console sales dynamics in 2026. Console sales will be even more back loaded in 2026 than is normal. Generally, in terms of launch timing and generating the most console sales, I think a release in Q4 is better than in Q2 due to the gifting season dynamic, so there is a silver lining to an extent.

However, other analysts aren't convinced the GTA 6 delay will actually influence next-gen console timing. George Jijiashvili, senior principal analyst at Omdia, questioned what Sony would actually gain by delaying PS6. Rhys Elliott, head of market analysis at Alinea Analytics, shared similar skepticism about a causal relationship between the game delay and hardware launches.