A new analysis suggests the game could earn a staggering $10 billion, a figure that would make it one of the most profitable entertainment products ever created.
Industry experts from firms like Ampere Analysis and Wedbush Securities are painting Grand Theft Auto 6 as a game that will defy convention regarding pricing and consumer behavior.
While most entertainment products would face serious backlash for premium pricing (like what happened with Xbox and Nintendo), GTA 6 appears to exist in its own category entirely.
As reported by The Telegraph, analysts from these firms are claiming that the upcoming Grand Theft Auto game could end up earning a staggering $10 billion over its lifetime. This eye-watering figure comes despite expectations that the game might carry a $100 price tag when it launches in May 2026.
The numbers being thrown around are nothing short of extraordinary. Development costs alone are estimated to exceed $1.5 billion. For context, that's more than the production budgets of several Hollywood blockbusters combined, which is somehow fitting as GTA 6 recently set a new record for the most viewed trailer in entertainment history.
What makes these predictions even more remarkable is the current state of the gaming industry. Major publishers are cutting jobs, studios are closing their doors, and high-profile releases are failing to meet expectations. Yet GTA 6 seems immune to these concerns.
The confidence stems partly from the franchise's proven track record. Grand Theft Auto 5 is the most profitable piece of media ever created with over 215 million copies sold and counting. It continues to generate revenue more than a decade after its initial release, thanks to multiple releases and the ongoing success of Grand Theft Auto Online.
The same analysts are predicting that the online element, in particular, could bring in an additional $500 million annually for Rockstar Games and Take-Two Interactive, creating a revenue stream that extends far beyond initial sales - as proven more than adequately by the current version.
Even so, the jump to $100 would represent uncharted territory for the industry, potentially setting a new precedent that other publishers might attempt to follow. How well lesser games might fare is of course a different question...
Previous expectations were for GTA 6 to generate over a billion in pre-orders alone and nearly $8 billion in two months. These projections would shatter existing launch records, which, ironically, were set by GTA 5.
Take-Two's stock performance reflects investor confidence in these predictions. The company's valuation has peaked in recent months, especially following the release of the second GTA 6 trailer despite a slight tumble. This surge suggests that financial markets are betting heavily on GTA 6's success, its price point be damned.
The game's marketing has already broken records without traditional advertising campaigns. Trailers and teasers have accumulated hundreds of millions of views. Can you imagine how much more viral the first GTA 6 trailer could've gotten if it wasn't leaked and released prematurely?
With that said, these analysts likely haven't taken into account yet what would happen if Rockstar had to implement more astringent age verification measures, which might happen soon in Grand Theft Auto Online.