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THE BOOKIE

What will GTA 6's Metacritic critic score be?

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Pool

1,060 MK

Pool fee

53 MK

Removed before winnings are shared.

Net pool

1,007 MK

Closes

Nov 18, 2026, 10:59 AM

Market context

Zelnick told Wall Street at TD Cowen that GTA 6's success isn't about opening weekend. It's about review scores above 95 and players still logging in a decade from now. GTA V holds a 97 on Metacritic 13 years after launch. Red Dead Redemption 2 hit 97. The $3 billion budget, the unlimited resources, the three delays all exist to protect this one number, because a 95-plus score is what sustains a 10 year revenue tail. Anything below 90 would be a shock.

Read the story behind this market

Market options

Matches the Throne (95 or higher).

GTA 6 reaches a Metacritic critic score of 95 or above, meeting Zelnick's stated benchmark and matching or beating GTA V's 97.

49% chance · 515 MK in pool · 2 bets

1.96x

Elite but Short (90 to 94).

GTA 6 lands a Metacritic score between 90 and 94. A great game by any measure but below the GTA V benchmark and Zelnick's target.

50% chance · 533 MK in pool · 1 bets

1.89x

Merely Very Good (85 to 89).

GTA 6 scores between 85 and 89 on Metacritic. Strong, but the kind of score the article frames as a disappointment for a game of this scale and budget.

1% chance · 11 MK in pool · 0 bets

20.0x

The Unthinkable (Below 85).

GTA 6 lands a Metacritic score below 85, a scenario almost nobody is predicting for a Rockstar flagship.

0% chance · 1 MK in pool · 0 bets

20.0x

Market status

This market is open. Odds can move as more MK enters the pool.

Market movement

This tracks how the market has moved over time. A record is saved when odds open, a bet changes the pool, or the market is settled or voided.

Leading outcome chance

Each point is a saved market record after a bet, opening update, or settlement change.

Latest: 50%
0%50%100%Aug 8, 2026, 9:17 PM: Matches the Throne (95 or higher). at 57%Aug 18, 2026, 11:49 AM: Elite but Short (90 to 94). at 88%Aug 19, 2026, 2:26 AM: Elite but Short (90 to 94). at 50%

Bet placed

Elite but Short (90 to 94).

1.89x
Aug 19, 2026, 2:26 AM50%Net pool1,007 MK

Bet placed

Elite but Short (90 to 94).

1.08x
Aug 18, 2026, 11:49 AM88%Net pool575 MK

Bet placed

Matches the Throne (95 or higher).

1.67x
Aug 8, 2026, 9:17 PM57%Net pool100 MK