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THE BOOKIE

How many copies will GTA 6 sell in its first month?

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Pool

55,792 MK

Pool fee

2,789 MK

Removed before winnings are shared.

Net pool

53,003 MK

Closes

Dec 15, 2026, 10:59 AM

Market context

GTA V sold 11.2 million copies on day one and 29 million in its first month back in 2013. The combined PS5 and Xbox Series X/S install base now sits at roughly 120 million. Analysts project GTA 6 will land somewhere between 40 and 60 million in its first month. Take Two needs the high end of that range to hit the $7.6 billion in 60 days projection. Hardware price hikes in Asia, no PC version at launch, and emerging market affordability all pull on the downside.

Read the story behind this market

Market options

Conservative Win (Under 30 million).

GTA 6 sells fewer than 30 million copies in its first month. A massive launch by any standard but below GTA V's 29 million first month record adjusted for inflation and install base.

14% chance · 7,782 MK in pool · 51 bets

6.81x

Beats GTA V Comfortably (30 to 45 million).

GTA 6 sells between 30 and 45 million copies in its first month, clearly outperforming GTA V's 2013 record but landing below the most aggressive analyst projections.

25% chance · 13,958 MK in pool · 68 bets

3.80x

Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million).

GTA 6 sells between 45 and 60 million copies in its first month, hitting the upper end of the analyst projections cited in the article.

25% chance · 14,058 MK in pool · 55 bets

3.77x

Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).

GTA 6 sells more than 60 million copies in its first month, exceeding even the most aggressive forecasts and rewriting expectations of what an entertainment launch can do.

36% chance · 19,994 MK in pool · 78 bets

2.65x

Market status

This market is open. Odds can move as more MK enters the pool.

Market movement

This tracks how the market has moved over time. A record is saved when odds open, a bet changes the pool, or the market is settled or voided.

Leading outcome chance

Each point is a saved market record after a bet, opening update, or settlement change.

Latest: 36%
0%50%100%Oct 7, 2026, 3:42 AM: Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). at 37%Oct 10, 2026, 1:52 AM: Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). at 37%Oct 13, 2026, 12:06 AM: Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). at 37%Oct 13, 2026, 12:10 AM: Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). at 36%Oct 15, 2026, 12:08 PM: Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). at 36%Oct 17, 2026, 9:10 PM: Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). at 37%Oct 19, 2026, 4:59 AM: Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). at 36%Oct 26, 2026, 3:08 PM: Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). at 36%Oct 28, 2026, 2:21 AM: Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). at 36%Oct 29, 2026, 11:06 AM: Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). at 36%Oct 31, 2026, 12:02 PM: Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). at 36%Nov 1, 2026, 4:17 AM: Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). at 36%

Bet placed

Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).

2.65x
Nov 1, 2026, 4:17 AM36%Net pool53,003 MK

Bet placed

Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).

2.65x
Oct 31, 2026, 12:02 PM36%Net pool52,998 MK

Bet placed

Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).

2.65x
Oct 29, 2026, 11:06 AM36%Net pool52,927 MK

Bet placed

Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).

2.65x
Oct 28, 2026, 2:21 AM36%Net pool52,922 MK

Bet placed

Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).

2.62x
Oct 26, 2026, 3:08 PM36%Net pool52,447 MK

Bet placed

Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).

2.61x
Oct 19, 2026, 4:59 AM36%Net pool52,257 MK