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How many copies will GTA 6 sell in its first month?

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Pool

51,630 MK

Pool fee

2,581 MK

Removed before winnings are shared.

Net pool

49,049 MK

Closes

Dec 15, 2026, 10:59 AM

Market context

GTA V sold 11.2 million copies on day one and 29 million in its first month back in 2013. The combined PS5 and Xbox Series X/S install base now sits at roughly 120 million. Analysts project GTA 6 will land somewhere between 40 and 60 million in its first month. Take Two needs the high end of that range to hit the $7.6 billion in 60 days projection. Hardware price hikes in Asia, no PC version at launch, and emerging market affordability all pull on the downside.

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Market options

Conservative Win (Under 30 million).

GTA 6 sells fewer than 30 million copies in its first month. A massive launch by any standard but below GTA V's 29 million first month record adjusted for inflation and install base.

14% chance · 7,197 MK in pool · 47 bets

6.82x

Beats GTA V Comfortably (30 to 45 million).

GTA 6 sells between 30 and 45 million copies in its first month, clearly outperforming GTA V's 2013 record but landing below the most aggressive analyst projections.

22% chance · 11,243 MK in pool · 60 bets

4.36x

Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million).

GTA 6 sells between 45 and 60 million copies in its first month, hitting the upper end of the analyst projections cited in the article.

26% chance · 13,563 MK in pool · 54 bets

3.62x

Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).

GTA 6 sells more than 60 million copies in its first month, exceeding even the most aggressive forecasts and rewriting expectations of what an entertainment launch can do.

38% chance · 19,627 MK in pool · 75 bets

2.50x

Market status

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Leading outcome chance

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Latest: 38%

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