THE BOOKIE

How many copies will GTA 6 sell in its first month?

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Pool

22,170 MK

Pool fee

1,108 MK

Removed before winnings are shared.

Net pool

21,062 MK

Closes

Dec 15, 2026, 10:59 AM

Market context

GTA V sold 11.2 million copies on day one and 29 million in its first month back in 2013. The combined PS5 and Xbox Series X/S install base now sits at roughly 120 million. Analysts project GTA 6 will land somewhere between 40 and 60 million in its first month. Take Two needs the high end of that range to hit the $7.6 billion in 60 days projection. Hardware price hikes in Asia, no PC version at launch, and emerging market affordability all pull on the downside.

Market options

Conservative Win (Under 30 million).

GTA 6 sells fewer than 30 million copies in its first month. A massive launch by any standard but below GTA V's 29 million first month record adjusted for inflation and install base.

12% chance · 2,657 MK in pool · 23 bets

7.93x

Beats GTA V Comfortably (30 to 45 million).

GTA 6 sells between 30 and 45 million copies in its first month, clearly outperforming GTA V's 2013 record but landing below the most aggressive analyst projections.

20% chance · 4,518 MK in pool · 28 bets

4.66x

Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million).

GTA 6 sells between 45 and 60 million copies in its first month, hitting the upper end of the analyst projections cited in the article.

38% chance · 8,348 MK in pool · 29 bets

2.52x

Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).

GTA 6 sells more than 60 million copies in its first month, exceeding even the most aggressive forecasts and rewriting expectations of what an entertainment launch can do.

30% chance · 6,647 MK in pool · 31 bets

3.17x

Market status

This market is open. Odds can move as more MK enters the pool.

Market movement

This tracks how the market has moved over time. A record is saved when odds open, a bet changes the pool, or the market is settled or voided.

Leading outcome chance

Each point is a saved market record after a bet, opening update, or settlement change.

Latest: 38%
0%50%100%Jun 11, 2026, 12:09 PM: Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million). at 36%Jun 12, 2026, 11:07 PM: Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million). at 36%Jun 13, 2026, 7:31 AM: Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million). at 35%Jun 15, 2026, 6:56 AM: Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million). at 35%Jun 15, 2026, 7:47 PM: Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million). at 37%Jun 16, 2026, 12:45 PM: Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million). at 36%Jun 17, 2026, 9:42 AM: Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million). at 36%Jun 17, 2026, 4:33 PM: Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million). at 35%Jun 18, 2026, 6:52 AM: Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million). at 35%Jun 18, 2026, 8:16 AM: Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million). at 36%Jun 18, 2026, 2:39 PM: Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million). at 38%Jun 18, 2026, 3:42 PM: Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million). at 38%

Bet placed

Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million).

2.52x
Jun 18, 2026, 3:42 PM38%Net pool21,062 MK

Bet placed

Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million).

2.52x
Jun 18, 2026, 2:39 PM38%Net pool21,057 MK

Bet placed

Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million).

2.62x
Jun 18, 2026, 8:16 AM36%Net pool20,582 MK

Bet placed

Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million).

2.68x
Jun 18, 2026, 6:52 AM35%Net pool20,345 MK

Bet placed

Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million).

2.68x
Jun 17, 2026, 4:33 PM35%Net pool20,340 MK

Bet placed

Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million).

2.66x
Jun 17, 2026, 9:42 AM36%Net pool20,188 MK