Pool
48,145 MK
Pool fee
2,407 MK
Removed before winnings are shared.
Net pool
45,738 MK
Closes
Dec 15, 2026, 10:59 AM
Market context
GTA V sold 11.2 million copies on day one and 29 million in its first month back in 2013. The combined PS5 and Xbox Series X/S install base now sits at roughly 120 million. Analysts project GTA 6 will land somewhere between 40 and 60 million in its first month. Take Two needs the high end of that range to hit the $7.6 billion in 60 days projection. Hardware price hikes in Asia, no PC version at launch, and emerging market affordability all pull on the downside.
GTA 6 sells fewer than 30 million copies in its first month. A massive launch by any standard but below GTA V's 29 million first month record adjusted for inflation and install base.
13% chance · 6,237 MK in pool · 40 bets
GTA 6 sells between 30 and 45 million copies in its first month, clearly outperforming GTA V's 2013 record but landing below the most aggressive analyst projections.
20% chance · 9,823 MK in pool · 56 bets
GTA 6 sells between 45 and 60 million copies in its first month, hitting the upper end of the analyst projections cited in the article.
26% chance · 12,508 MK in pool · 50 bets
GTA 6 sells more than 60 million copies in its first month, exceeding even the most aggressive forecasts and rewriting expectations of what an entertainment launch can do.
41% chance · 19,577 MK in pool · 74 bets
This market is open. Odds can move as more MK enters the pool.
This tracks how the market has moved over time. A record is saved when odds open, a bet changes the pool, or the market is settled or voided.
Leading outcome chance
Each point is a saved market record after a bet, opening update, or settlement change.
Bet placed
Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).
Bet placed
Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).
Bet placed
Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).
Bet placed
Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).
Bet placed
Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).
Bet placed
Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).
| Recorded | What changed | Leading outcome | Chance then | Payout then | Net pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026, 7:06 AM | Bet placed | Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). | 41% | 2.34x | 45,738 MK |
| Jul 30, 2026, 10:29 PM | Bet placed | Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). | 41% | 2.34x | 45,733 MK |
| Jul 30, 2026, 5:49 AM | Bet placed | Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). | 41% | 2.34x | 45,729 MK |
| Jul 26, 2026, 4:03 PM | Bet placed | Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). | 41% | 2.34x | 45,681 MK |
| Jul 26, 2026, 7:58 AM | Bet placed | Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). | 39% | 2.42x | 44,731 MK |
| Jul 24, 2026, 1:24 AM | Bet placed | Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). | 39% | 2.43x | 44,541 MK |
