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How many copies will GTA 6 sell in its first month?

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Pool

660 MK

Pool fee

33 MK

Removed before winnings are shared.

Net pool

627 MK

Closes

Dec 15, 2026, 10:59 AM

Market context

GTA V sold 11.2 million copies on day one and 29 million in its first month back in 2013. The combined PS5 and Xbox Series X/S install base now sits at roughly 120 million. Analysts project GTA 6 will land somewhere between 40 and 60 million in its first month. Take Two needs the high end of that range to hit the $7.6 billion in 60 days projection. Hardware price hikes in Asia, no PC version at launch, and emerging market affordability all pull on the downside.

Read the story behind this market

Market options

Conservative Win (Under 30 million).

GTA 6 sells fewer than 30 million copies in its first month. A massive launch by any standard but below GTA V's 29 million first month record adjusted for inflation and install base.

5% chance · 32 MK in pool · 2 bets

19.6x

Beats GTA V Comfortably (30 to 45 million).

GTA 6 sells between 30 and 45 million copies in its first month, clearly outperforming GTA V's 2013 record but landing below the most aggressive analyst projections.

14% chance · 93 MK in pool · 1 bets

6.74x

Demolishes the Record (45 to 60 million).

GTA 6 sells between 45 and 60 million copies in its first month, hitting the upper end of the analyst projections cited in the article.

4% chance · 28 MK in pool · 0 bets

20.0x

Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).

GTA 6 sells more than 60 million copies in its first month, exceeding even the most aggressive forecasts and rewriting expectations of what an entertainment launch can do.

77% chance · 507 MK in pool · 1 bets

1.24x

Market status

This market is open. Odds can move as more MK enters the pool.

Market movement

This tracks how the market has moved over time. A record is saved when odds open, a bet changes the pool, or the market is settled or voided.

Leading outcome chance

Each point is a saved market record after a bet, opening update, or settlement change.

Latest: 77%
0%50%100%May 4, 2026, 7:50 AM: Beats GTA V Comfortably (30 to 45 million). at 62%May 4, 2026, 8:18 AM: Beats GTA V Comfortably (30 to 45 million). at 60%May 4, 2026, 8:29 AM: Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). at 77%May 4, 2026, 8:42 AM: Breaks Reality (Over 60 million). at 77%

Bet placed

Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).

1.24x
May 4, 2026, 8:42 AM77%Net pool627 MK

Bet placed

Breaks Reality (Over 60 million).

1.23x
May 4, 2026, 8:29 AM77%Net pool623 MK

Bet placed

Beats GTA V Comfortably (30 to 45 million).

1.59x
May 4, 2026, 8:18 AM60%Net pool148 MK

Bet placed

Beats GTA V Comfortably (30 to 45 million).

1.54x
May 4, 2026, 7:50 AM62%Net pool143 MK