Rockstar Games hasn't published official Grand Theft Auto 6 pre-order numbers yet, but stock moves, store rankings, and Take-Two Interactive's own FY2027 guidance point to record-breaking sales.
We've got nearly a week of pre-orders in the books for Grand Theft Auto VI, yet zero official numbers. However, no one is questioning just how well the next Grand Theft Auto is selling. If anything, what's on everyone's mind is how high the sales of GTA 6 can get before it's finally released.
To no one's surprise, Rockstar Games hasn't released a single pre-order figure since June 25. If we're being honest, it doesn't have to do anything. The indirect evidence, from stock movement to store rankings and to every other conversation involving GTA 6 in some way or form, all points to a single financially pleasing direction for Rockstar and Take-Two Interactive. It's no different from paying attention to where the eagles are when trying to catch fish, or in this, finding out just how much fish the fisherman have caught if the fisherman we're talking about is the size of a meteor (or an iceberg, depending on who you ask).
GTA V Benchmark
| GTA V Milestone (2013) | Figure |
|---|---|
Day-one sales | ~$800 million |
Three-day sales | ~$1 billion |
Copies sold day one | ~11 million |
Franchise lifetime | 465M+ across the series |
Analysts expect GTA 6's first-month pre-orders alone to rival or exceed GTA V's entire first-day haul.
So far, the only figures thrown around are that Rockstar reportedly made a billion in its first hour, a baseless claim made by Tech4Gamers and another uncredited data release by video game industry insider Millie A on X, who says the Ultimate Edition makes up nearly three-fourths (72%) of GTA 6 pre-orders.
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In comparison, Grand Theft Auto V took three days to reach the same number. Most analysts expect GTA 6 to dwarf the numbers posted by the second-best-selling video game of all time. So far, it's done just that.
It certainly works in Rockstar's favor that the console install base is far larger now than in 2013. A much higher share of sales today is digital, which means more pre-orders and fewer supply bottlenecks. To top it all off, the base price is $80, so every copy of a game that will release to 13 years of pent-up demand earns more. As a bonus, there's virtually zero major competition within the release window. The lot has moved out, save for a few.
All things considered, GTA 6 pre-orders setting a new record is more of a when kind of thing, not an if.
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Take-Two's FY2027 guidance, filed with the SEC, implies it expects to make up to $1.5 billion from GTA 6 less than five months into its release. Pre-orders are the leading indicator of whether the company hits that. If pre-orders really are tracking toward $1 billion in the first week, then it may exceed the $8 billion guidance, with share prices possibly surpassing the $280 and $300 price targets.
For players, record pre-order numbers have real consequences. Massive launch demand will put a similarly-sized strain on the servers on November 19. You'll want to preload on November 12 to play at launch, rather than waiting for a day-one download that will definitely take much longer than expected.
We know we're repeating ourselves at this point, but because the physical copy is a code-in-a-box and might not include a physical disc, there's no stock limit on GTA 6 pre-order sales. The only limiting factor here is if there aren't enough consoles to go around, which might happen if you believe this retailer.
Ultimately, the direction where GTA 6 is going leaves no doubt. It's on track to break records its predecessor set over a decade ago.