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THE BOOKIE

Will xAI release a playable AI generated game before GTA 6 launches on November 19?

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Pool

610 MK

Pool fee

30 MK

Removed before winnings are shared.

Net pool

580 MK

Closes

Oct 30, 2026, 10:59 AM

Market context

Elon Musk said xAI would "release a great AI generated game before the end of 2026." He agreed with posts claiming AI could build GTA 6 before Rockstar ships the real thing. Zelnick called the whole idea "laughable" and just followed up by calling Musk his "number one choice" for someone living in a simulation. The clock is ticking on both promises. GTA 6 ships November 19. Musk's AI game does not currently exist. Place your bets accordingly.

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Market options

Musk Delivers.

xAI releases a publicly playable AI generated game before November 19, 2026. Must be a standalone experience available to the public, not a tech demo, research paper, or promotional video.

8% chance · 50 MK in pool · 0 bets

11.6x

All Talk.

No publicly playable AI generated game from xAI materializes before GTA 6 launches. Announcements, teasers, and "coming soon" posts do not count.

92% chance · 560 MK in pool · 2 bets

1.04x

Market status

This market is open. Odds can move as more MK enters the pool.

Market movement

This tracks how the market has moved over time. A record is saved when odds open, a bet changes the pool, or the market is settled or voided.

Leading outcome chance

Each point is a saved market record after a bet, opening update, or settlement change.

Latest: 92%
0%50%100%Apr 30, 2026, 7:57 AM: All Talk. at 55%Aug 27, 2026, 6:07 AM: All Talk. at 92%

Bet placed

All Talk.

1.04x
Aug 27, 2026, 6:07 AM92%Net pool580 MK

Market odds converted

All Talk.

1.75x
Apr 30, 2026, 7:57 AM55%Net pool105 MK

Bet placed

n/a

n/a
Apr 20, 2026, 6:22 AMn/aNet pool10 MK

Opening odds

n/a

n/a
Apr 20, 2026, 6:21 AMn/aNet pool0 MK