Musk Delivers.
xAI releases a publicly playable AI generated game before November 19, 2026. Must be a standalone experience available to the public, not a tech demo, research paper, or promotional video.
45% chance · 50 MK in pool · 0 bets
THE BOOKIE
Pool
110 MK
Pool fee
5 MK
Removed before winnings are shared.
Net pool
105 MK
Closes
Oct 30, 2026, 10:59 AM
Market context
Elon Musk said xAI would "release a great AI generated game before the end of 2026." He agreed with posts claiming AI could build GTA 6 before Rockstar ships the real thing. Zelnick called the whole idea "laughable" and just followed up by calling Musk his "number one choice" for someone living in a simulation. The clock is ticking on both promises. GTA 6 ships November 19. Musk's AI game does not currently exist. Place your bets accordingly.
xAI releases a publicly playable AI generated game before November 19, 2026. Must be a standalone experience available to the public, not a tech demo, research paper, or promotional video.
45% chance · 50 MK in pool · 0 bets
No publicly playable AI generated game from xAI materializes before GTA 6 launches. Announcements, teasers, and "coming soon" posts do not count.
55% chance · 60 MK in pool · 1 bets
This market is open. Odds can move as more MK enters the pool.
This tracks how the market has moved over time. A record is saved when odds open, a bet changes the pool, or the market is settled or voided.
Leading outcome chance
Each point is a saved market record after a bet, opening update, or settlement change.
Market odds converted
All Talk.
Bet placed
n/a
Opening odds
n/a
| Recorded | What changed | Leading outcome | Chance then | Payout then | Net pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2026, 7:57 AM | Market odds converted | All Talk. | 55% | 1.75x | 105 MK |
| Apr 20, 2026, 6:22 AM | Bet placed | n/a | n/a | n/a | 10 MK |
| Apr 20, 2026, 6:21 AM | Opening odds | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0 MK |