Talk of Sony releasing the PlayStation 6 after 2028, based on David Gibson’s Sandstone Insights Japan note from January 16, feels a whole lot of nothingburger until you realize that Grand Theft Auto 6 is about to make it okay for Sony to do this.
Rockstar locked the biggest entertainment release of this generation to the PS5 window with an official November 19, 2026, launch date on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. That single date turns Sony's "extended lifecycle" messaging from corporate spin into something you can actually picture. After all, Sony won't need the PS6 to generate console sales when GTA 6 is about to do it for them anyway.
Perhaps it's no surprise, then, that Sony CFO Lin Tan sang the same tune two months ago, saying the PS5 is "only in the middle of the journey".
At this point, this is no mere speculation. We've already seen what happens when GTA 6 moves on the calendar. When Rockstar delayed the game from Fall 2025 to May 2026, Sony immediately cut its PS5 sales expectations from 18.5 million units to 15 million units for fiscal 2025.
When Rockstar delayed it again to November 2026, the console market collapsed. November 2025 recorded the weakest hardware sales for any November since 1995, with Xbox Series X|S sales down 70% year-over-year and PS5 sales down over 40%. The reason? Millions of people are waiting for GTA 6 before buying current-gen hardware, which we don't recommend doing.
Sony knows this. Microsoft knows this. Ampere Analysis estimated the delay resulted in 700,000 fewer PS5 and Xbox consoles sold than expected and a $2.7 billion reduction in anticipated console market revenue for 2025 alone.
If GTA 6 drives that kind of demand shock, Sony has zero incentive to launch a PS6 before riding that wave as long as possible.
