THE BOOKIE
Pool
650 MK
Pool fee
32 MK
Removed before winnings are shared.
Net pool
618 MK
Closes
Jan 18, 2027, 10:59 AM
Market context
Zelnick used the word "terrified" out loud for the first time. Not at an earnings call. Not in front of analysts. He saved it for a closed door industry conference in Las Vegas. The market has priced GTA 6 to deliver $7.6 billion in 60 days. Take Two's $55 billion market cap is a leveraged bet on this specific number. A masterpiece can still be called a disappointment if it falls short of perfection. The question is whether Rockstar clears the bar that Wall Street has already set for them.
GTA 6 generates more than $7.6 billion in gross revenue within 60 days of launch (by January 18, 2027). Confirmed by Take Two earnings disclosures, official press releases, or credible industry analyst reports referencing official figures.
12% chance · 81 MK in pool · 1 bets
GTA 6 generates between $6 billion and $7.6 billion in gross revenue within 60 days. A massive success but lands below the headline analyst projection.
83% chance · 541 MK in pool · 1 bets
GTA 6 generates less than $6 billion in gross revenue within 60 days. Still likely a record breaking launch in absolute terms but a notable miss against expectations.
4% chance · 28 MK in pool · 0 bets
This market is open. Odds can move as more MK enters the pool.
This tracks how the market has moved over time. A record is saved when odds open, a bet changes the pool, or the market is settled or voided.
Leading outcome chance
Each point is a saved market record after a bet, opening update, or settlement change.
Bet placed
Hits the Mark.
Bet placed
Smashes the Target.
Opening odds
Hits the Mark.
| Recorded | What changed | Leading outcome | Chance then | Payout then | Net pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2026, 9:47 AM | Bet placed | Hits the Mark. | 83% | 1.14x | 618 MK |
| Apr 30, 2026, 12:38 AM | Bet placed | Smashes the Target. | 54% | 1.77x | 143 MK |
| Apr 29, 2026, 11:47 PM | Opening odds | Hits the Mark. | 41% | 2.32x | 95 MK |
