THE BOOKIE
Pool
1,150 MK
Pool fee
57 MK
Removed before winnings are shared.
Net pool
1,093 MK
Closes
Jan 18, 2027, 10:59 AM
Market context
Zelnick used the word "terrified" out loud for the first time. Not at an earnings call. Not in front of analysts. He saved it for a closed door industry conference in Las Vegas. The market has priced GTA 6 to deliver $7.6 billion in 60 days. Take Two's $55 billion market cap is a leveraged bet on this specific number. A masterpiece can still be called a disappointment if it falls short of perfection. The question is whether Rockstar clears the bar that Wall Street has already set for them.
GTA 6 generates more than $7.6 billion in gross revenue within 60 days of launch (by January 18, 2027). Confirmed by Take Two earnings disclosures, official press releases, or credible industry analyst reports referencing official figures.
7% chance · 81 MK in pool · 1 bets
GTA 6 generates between $6 billion and $7.6 billion in gross revenue within 60 days. A massive success but lands below the headline analyst projection.
91% chance · 1,041 MK in pool · 2 bets
GTA 6 generates less than $6 billion in gross revenue within 60 days. Still likely a record breaking launch in absolute terms but a notable miss against expectations.
2% chance · 28 MK in pool · 0 bets
This market is open. Odds can move as more MK enters the pool.
This tracks how the market has moved over time. A record is saved when odds open, a bet changes the pool, or the market is settled or voided.
Leading outcome chance
Each point is a saved market record after a bet, opening update, or settlement change.
Bet placed
Hits the Mark.
Bet placed
Hits the Mark.
Bet placed
Smashes the Target.
Opening odds
Hits the Mark.
| Recorded | What changed | Leading outcome | Chance then | Payout then | Net pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026, 8:51 AM | Bet placed | Hits the Mark. | 91% | 1.05x | 1,093 MK |
| Apr 30, 2026, 9:47 AM | Bet placed | Hits the Mark. | 83% | 1.14x | 618 MK |
| Apr 30, 2026, 12:38 AM | Bet placed | Smashes the Target. | 54% | 1.77x | 143 MK |
| Apr 29, 2026, 11:47 PM | Opening odds | Hits the Mark. | 41% | 2.32x | 95 MK |
