Grand Theft Auto 6 will face an unusual challenge when it comes out on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series S/X on May 2026.
Unlike most incoming titles, its primary competition won't come from rival studios or competing franchises. Instead, GTA 6 must prove itself against its older, record-breaking brother, Grand Theft Auto 5.
In an interview with GamesIndustry.biz, industry analyst Matt Piscatella, shared that he believes GTA 6's main rival will be none other than its 2013 predecessor, the game it's supposed to replace.
Piscatella points to monthly sales data showing GTA 5 consistently ranking among top sellers, mostly thanks to the success of Grand Theft Auto Online and multiple re-releases. This is indicative of how Grand Theft Auto players have continued to buck the trend instead of moving on to the next shiny object, a rarity among non-free-to-play titles. Rockstar Games has successfully created lasting value in the Los Santos experience that keeps drawing players back while inviting even more.
GTA 5 first launched in 2013, over a decade ago. Yet every single month, it continues to rank among the year's best-selling titles. This creates an unprecedented challenge for GTA 6. However, Take-Two Interactive CEO Strauss Zelnick has consistently remained confident in the ability of Rockstar to deliver.
Three years ago, Zelnick shared his belief that GTA 6 will set a new "creative benchmark" in the video game industry. His recent statements, paired with GTA 6's latest achievements, suggest that nothing has changed.
So while GTA 5 has set an incredibly high bar for its successor, perhaps the highest in all of gaming, all signs point to GTA 6 exceeding any and all expectations.
Already, other experts are expecting GTA 6 to make multiple billions in revenue within months of launching and that's discounting the fact that it will release on the PC and the next generation of consoles eventually.
With that said, the ultimate winners here aren't Take-Two or Rockstar. The development team has years of data from GTA 5 to use to understand what features players actually want. Role-playing servers, custom races, and creative building tools all emerged organically from the community. GTA 6 can integrate these concepts from launch rather than adding them later, giving players a more refined product right from the get go.
Player retention strategies for GTA 6 build on GTA 5 and its now-proven model. The game can launch with robust content update plans, seasonal events, and community features that kept GTA 5 relevant across multiple console generations. This longevity planning sets GTA 6 up for similar sustained success.
Besides, GTA 6 enters a market where players have proven they'll stick with quality experiences rather than constantly switching to new releases. This loyalty benefits established franchises that deliver consistent value, which GTA has consistently shown.
Most importantly, GTA 6 knows its identity before launch. The game doesn't need to experiment with different genres or gameplay styles.
In a way, when GTA 6 finally arrives, it won't necessarily be competing against GTA 5 even if that's how Piscatella put it. It will be demonstrating how a decade of player feedback, technical advancement, and market analysis can show us what's next for an already legendary franchise.
