Rumors about the Red Dead franchise becoming more like Red Alive have been swirling for a good long time now. The series, though significantly younger and less weathered, has almost as much fame in gaming circles as GTA. If Rockstar is indeed working on the next Red Dead game, they might be including a multiplayer much like GTA Online.
Getting a similar Online mode, from the same developers, also set in a popular franchise might seduce droves of gamers away from GTA Online. If Rockstar decides to ditch the peer-to-peer server architecture and make Red Dead Online hacker-proof, then there will be even more incentive.
Of course, Red Dead doesn't have the kind of mainstream recognition that GTA does. Ask any non-gamer what GTA is, they'll know — ask them about Red Dead, they'll have no clue at all. This mainstream recognition is what made Online so popular in the first place, meaning its success couldn't possibly be replicated by any other franchise.
However, don't make the mistake of assuming that this means that Take-Two is planning a successor to GTA Online itself within the same franchise. It is quite clear from Zelnick's words, that once the sun of Online has set, they want to give the franchise a rest instead of instantly jumping into the next one.
Whatever Rockstar's next major project will be, it won't be GTA. However, we all know that the devs love putting a ton of time into baking their games and polishing them to a shine, meaning that reports of VI being in development should not be discounted.
Take-Two, with the exemption of NBA 2K and WWE, is strictly against annual releases and franchise milking. While releasing — or simply announcing — a new GTA game three years after the previous one might not seem "too soon", considering how strong Online is still going, it could be considered milking.
The market asks us, 'Why don't you annualize your titles?' We think with the non-sports titles, we are better served to create anticipation and demand. On the one hand to rest the title and on the other hand to have the highest quality in the market, which takes time. You can't do that annually.
Take-Two considers the trend of the biggest AAA franchises getting annual releases to hurt those franchises and the industry as a whole. This is why you don't get a new Borderlands every year. In terms of sequels, often time you can expect them to be at least as popular as the predecessor. If the original is popular, the second will be even more so — however if the second is rushed and poorly made, the third is guaranteed to tank.
Rockstar's next release being non-GTA will divert attention, allow GTA Online to wind down. When support finally ceases, the current player-base will probably quit. Without Online to fill that gap, Rockstar creates demand that could only be fulfilled by the next iteration, allowing them to release it around 2020 with massive success and for an already existing player base.
This would coincide with Take-Two's other statements that they want to keep GTA Online running until 2020. Doing so while supporting another Grand Theft Auto multiplayer component wouldn't be wise, which is why players shouldn't expect VI until that time at least.
While never stated outright, based on Take-Two's comments, Rockstar probably has more than one thing to show off at E3 this year. For all we know, one of the smaller announcements could be related to expanding GTA Online with a new city — a screenshot of Liberty City with better graphics was, after all, recently uploaded by a Rockstar employee — or, should the planets align, Story DLC.
However don't expect the major announcement to be about stealing cars in a satirized version of the USA. The two most likely candidates are another installment of Red Dead or the long-lost project, Agent.
The latter is the less likely of the two. Take-Two recently made a statement about having too many IPs under its control. While it is true that Agent as a trademark is still theirs, seeing as there is no game for it, it requires little management. The other factor is the work-in-progress screenshots released, which suggest that the project was either canned or rebooted — probably the first.
Red Dead however seems like the perfect — and logical — choice. It's a popular and established franchise. Fans have been hoping for a continuation for years and years. PC players have been asking for a chance to play it with mouse and keyboard. While the first game, Red Dead Revolver wasn't exactly a genre-defining hit, Red Dead Redemption was massively popular on the Xbox 360 and PS3 systems.
The game would most definitely bring in a profit, especially with an added Online component. GTA Online would continue making money and the two together would provide the studio with more than enough revenue to allocate a budget big enough for GTA VI to make it outshine V. Either way, we'll soon find out definitively what the next project on Rockstar's plate is — E3 is less than two weeks away!
How long do you think GTA Online will remain popular? What do you hope Rockstar's next major project will be?
